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Major League Baseball’s World Series is a maximum of seven games, with the winner
being the first team to win four games. Assume that the Atlanta Braves are in the World
Series and that the first two games are to be played in Atlanta, the next three games at the
opponent’s ballpark, and the last two games, if necessary, back in Atlanta. Taking into
account the projected starting pitchers for each game and the home field advantage, the
probabilities of Atlanta winning each game are as follows:
a. Set up random number intervals that can be used to determine the winner of each game.
Let the smaller random numbers indicate that Atlanta wins the game.For example, the random number interval “0.00 but less than 0.60” corresponds to Atlanta winning game 1.
b. Use the random numbers in column 6 of Table 16.2 beginning with 0.3813 to simulate
the playing of the World Series. Do the Atlanta Braves win the series? How many
games are played?
c. Discuss how repeated simulation trials could be used to estimate the overall probability
of Atlanta winning the series as well as the most likely number of games in theseries. |
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