Consider the actual sales shown in Table P-2 along with one-step-ahead forecasts produced by Winters method and by a regression model.
a. Construct the combined forecasts of sales produced by taking a simple average of the forecasts produced by Winters method and the regression model.
b. Construct the combined forecasts of sales produced by taking a weighted aver-age of the Winters forecasts and the regression forecasts with weights w1 = .8 and w2 = 1 – w1 = .2.
c. Using the actual sales, determine the MAPEs for the Winters forecasts and the regression forecasts.
d. Repeat part c using the combined forecasts from parts a and b. Based on the MAPE measure, which set of forecasts do you prefer? |

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