Chips Bakery has been having trouble forecasting the demand for its special high-fiber bread and would like your assistance. The data for the weekly demand and the autocorrelations of the original data and various differences of the data are shown in Tables P-7A-D.
a. Inspect the autocorrelation plots and suggest a tentative model for these data. How did you decide on this model?
b. Using a computer program for ARIMA modeling, fit and check your identified model with the bread demand data.
c. Write down the equation for forecasting the demand for high-fiber bread for period 53.
d. Using a computer program for ARIMA modeling, forecast the demand for high-fiber bread for the next four periods from forecast origin 52. Also, construct 95% prediction intervals. |
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